Following a slightly stronger than projected first quarter at the international box office, and with some titles added to the release calendar later in the year, Gower Street Analytics has increased its global projection for 2024 to $32.3B.
This is a 2.5% hike from the London-based firm’s previous 2024 estimate of $31.5B, but remains a 5% downturn versus 2023 (-3% at today’s exchange rates).
Unveiling the figures on the eve of CinemaCon which kicks off tomorrow in Las Vegas, Gower Street said that the increase would have been greater were it not for exchange rate fluctuations between December and now which resulted in “essentially wiping out over a third of the gains seen collectively across international markets.”
The updated 2024 estimate is 18% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
Actuals for Q1 were 1% ahead of Gower’s projections domestically and in China. In overseas markets excluding China, they came in 11% ahead of the previous estimates.
There have also been changes to the 2024 release calendar since Gower’s first projection was announced in December. Pictures added include Disney’s Moana 2 and Universal’s Abigail and The Wild Robot (both of latter, incidentally, are being touted on elevator doors here at Caesars Palace).
Overall, domestic is projected to grow $200M versus the earlier projection for an estimated full year of $8.2B. Gower has international up $550M to $16.2B (excluding China). The China estimate remains relatively flat at $7.9B which would represent a year-on-year gain. See graph below: