The Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have their fate in their own hands as they take on Chennai Super Kings (CSK) in a bid to qualify for the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 playoffs. With the rain threat also looming large over the fixture, the Bengaluru side’s qualification chances aren’t as straightforward. RCB’s margin of victory needs to be a solid one too, and if, rain comes down pouring, reducing the length of the match, the scenario will get even more complicated. Depending upon the length of the match, the qualification chances would change

RCB have done well in the second half of the campaign, producing 5 wins on the trot to find themselves with a real shot at playoffs qualification. Some of the results that Delhi Capitals, Lucknow Super Giants, and other franchises incurred also helped RCB in their pursuit. But now, the situation is in their hands, provided rain doesn’t wash out the game.

In a case where a full 20-over contest is played, RCB would need to win by 18 runs or more, provided they score 200 runs while batting first. In the case of a 5-over contest, RCB would need to restrict CSK to a maximum of 62 runs if they score 80 while batting first.

In a case where there’s reduced contest, here’s how the qualification scenario would change:

RCB Qualification Scenario for Playoffs in this IPL 2024: pic.twitter.com/k6P9otYZs7

— Tanuj Singh (@ImTanujSingh) May 17, 2024

The washed-out contest between Sunrisers Hyderabad and Gujarat Titans made the picture quite clear for RCB. Had GT beaten SRH in that match, two spots in the playoffs would’ve been up for grabs.

Now, RCB must win the match to have a shot at the last available spot. For CSK, they might still qualify even if they lose. The only condition is that their Net Run-rate must not fall below RCB.

A loss against the Bengaluru side doesn’t guarantee elimination for the Super Kings from the playoffs race. Since the Net Run Rate for Ruturaj Gaikwad-led side is better than Faf du Plessis & Co, even a narrow defeat against RCB would be enough to take CSK through.